Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens. Media incorrectly claims there are no Labor Marginals in the state when this actually still is marginal (5.3%). Blair was super marginal at this election because Labor suffered a huge swing here and in most of QLD in 2019. Ipswich itself has vaccination rates broadly in line with the state average (QLD has the lowest in Australia), however the fringes of Ipswich, along with the Gold Coast & Hinterland are much lower, suggesting a protest against the vaccine and more broadly Covid measures. I live in the Blair electorate and have never heard of him. Across the country voting patterns confirm that people want their MP to represent the community rather than the big parties. The leader of these groups was Long time DLP candidate Harry Wright. Labor are the only party that ever get anything done, LNP, Greens, One Nation, and UAP. In 1998 Hanson contested the seat of Blair, winning 36% of the primary vote but losing to the Liberals (who got 21%) under Australia's system of preferential voting. The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two of these five areas, polling 56.3% in central Ipswich and 60.7% in eastern Ipswich. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Partys name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing. Booth results map Activate. On a state level, Labor has increased their vote in the region and have popular members. Please walk round for a drink sometime my number is 0425365419 The original Division of Oxley was established in 1901, and was abolished and replaced by the Division of Griffith in 1934. Then after this division inevitably gets redistributed with less of it encompassing the rural parts of South East Queensland, ALP regain. Authorised by Clive Palmer. Facebook; Twitter; Senator Matt Canavan. Hanson achieved the country's largest anti-Labor swing of more than 19%. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. Walt Secord MLC - announced 19 August 2022; Adam Searle MLC - lost preselection 15 September 2022; Shaoquett Moselmane MLC - did not nominate for endorsement; Guy Zangari MP - announced 17 October 2022; Paul Lynch MP - not preselected November 2022 I stand by it. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. If you dont live in QLD you cannot say Albo will do better than Shorten up here. Electorates by alphabetical list . 2022 federal election Division finder - NSW Division finder - Vic. year at Oxley Christian College. Mr Green's campaign Facebook page and website have been taken down. The 1949 incarnation's best-known member was Bill Hayden, the Labor Opposition Leader between 1977 and 1983, when he resigned under pressure the same day that the 1983 election which swept Bob Hawke to power was called. It was 8 points wrong, So if we apply the same 8 point error to the current polls you get 61-39. Search by state or ZIP code, Look up contributions from specific individuals, Find and contact your committee's analyst. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Labor doesnt have a huge majority but there are some Queensland seats up for grabs in 2025. @ Ben, tell me what seats in Qld the Coalition will be picking up? Make child care cheaper so that it's easier for working families to get ahead. There are a few factors bludgeoning this Labor vote in Blair (and similar QLD divisions) from all different directions. They have no ground to gain anymore. Following the 2020 Census, some states may redraw their districts. Even if its somehow a close election 20+ seats could change hands between the 2 parties. Now you really have gone way, way, way too far !. Labors Shayne Neumann is all voice and no action and is taking the constituents of Blair for granted. Coordinates: .mw-parser-output .geo-default,.mw-parser-output .geo-dms,.mw-parser-output .geo-dec{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .geo-nondefault,.mw-parser-output .geo-multi-punct{display:none}.mw-parser-output .longitude,.mw-parser-output .latitude{white-space:nowrap}273632S 1525559E / 27.609S 152.933E / -27.609; 152.933, This article is about the current federal electorate. Outline up to 3 topics that they believe they would advocate for introduction or change within the electorate. Cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. Peter Duttons appeal in Queensland is overrated. You're using Internet Explorer, some features might not work. Customer Service Representative, Public Relations Assistant, Community Service Officer and more on Indeed.com The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. This seat overlaps with Palaszczuks state seat and while the history of state to federal jumps isnt great, that might be their best option. After watching the Lib campaign, Ive arrived at the complete opposite conclusion. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. Its almost as if they want the very land they live on to be destroyed by poor economic, and environmental management. WD stuck in lockdown in Warringah presently mate (there are worse places to be). Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. Read the story here. Independent Oxley is a group of passionate locals who believe in community independent rather than party representation. Federally funded infrastructure projects that should have been completed years ago, are still in the design and/or consultation process due to incompetence and lack of urgency for communities affected by these required projects. Libs will offset any loses in wa with seats in QLD, Nsw and Vic. The ABC has a great write up on how all that works, and if it even . The pandemic and its effect on Blair might feed back into the overall disillusionment in job-security and prospects. All Rights Reserved. The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. Political Nightwatchman Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee. However before any of your suggestion can happen. Copyright 2022 Independent Oxley - All Rights Reserved. Elected history-making governors. In the 2022 cycle, EMILYs List-endorsed candidates had big wins at every level of government. Maybe moderate could join us inside the 5kms zone ? Independent Oxley Governments generally do reward states for how many seats they get with ministries. 255 Forest Lake Boulevard
Oxley is reasonably safe for Labor. As an example, The Greens is stating it will recommend preferencing Labor ahead of the Coalition at the 2022 Federal Election. It is named after colonial explorer and surveyor John Oxley. Latest Update On WAEC GCE . Speaker of the House of Representatives from 26.7.2022. That is surprising that the odds are that wide considering the narrow margin. I had good links to ethnic Chinese in 1970s when the Friends of Free China used the same Post Office Box as the Captive Nations Council. Notes: Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only - votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is . Ill also make a few points that address John, Sharyn and Engadine. View Original Notice? Election night will likely be a shocker again and the coalition are being underestimated. Couple that with LNP base vote strengthening in more blue collar seats (bigger margins in Forde, Petrie Lindsey and becoming competitive in Blair, Fowler, Werriwa, Lilley) you can see why they might see a long term opportunity in Oxley. Well !? Rachael Jacobs Candidate for Grayndler. She is doing a magnificent job and she too will be re-elected in a landslide. I dont think any of the eastern states can be ignored period. Blair is an old style ALP seat with some rural areas. Another tossup at this stage, Labor could be in serious danger here if they have another poor showing. Sort this out or neither of yousell be coming to Chrissie!!. ), Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities in 27 of the 34 polling places used in 2019, the Liberals polling well in the Centenary suburbs in the north of the electorate, but Labor dominant further south. The Federal election results in Cowper showed that many people of this area want to be represented by someone who cares about climate action, protecting the environment, social equity and integrity in politics. The Division of Oxley is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. Morrison leads the preferred PM so he is more popular. Web: jamesmcgrath.com.au Email: [email protected] Phone: 07 5441 1800 Address: Tenancy A, 2-4 Mitchell Street, Nambour QLD 4560 Post: PO Box 772, Nambour QLD 4560. Labor is visionless and uninspiring as of 2021, compare Albo to Kevin 07 and Obama 08. State govt only survived on the covid vote. 1050 First Street, NE Do i fucking sound like a HACK ? Electorate Officer to Senator the Hon. The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 58.3% in the south-west and 67.3% in the south-east. Remember the lessons of 1993 and 2004 there is no such thing as invincibility in politics. Let alone a HACK How dare you ? I think LNP sense long term opportunity in both seats. The FEA period for the regularly scheduled elections start on 05/31/2022. Hes been perfectly willing to not just play defence and campaign in Labor held seats. Neumann is complacent and believes if he is seen in the community, then that is all he is required to do. WOW!!. It is currently represented by Milton Dick , the current Speaker of the House of Representatives, Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. (Click on polling place for results), Despite major changes in boundaries, Oxley has remained a relatively safe Labor seat compared to Labor's two-party preferred vote across Queensland. Dont be fooled because Albanese has absolutely no appeal up here. Two more points to consider to add the Observers points. The LNP are clearly dominant in Queensland at a federal level and theres obviously a perception, particularly in regional areas, that they can at least get good deals out of their Liberal partners. My opinion is that Shayne Neumann will increase his vote, As the LNP candidate here, he is missing in action. Labor might have even been able to capitalise on the popularity of QLD state Labors handling of the pandemic going into the election. Create secure local jobs by investing in Fee-Free TAFE and more university places, and make your job more secure with better pay and conditions. Nobody believes me but we shall see! or more precisely he id]s a massive sook, & cry-baby, & mamas boy !!. For all the brouhaha this will remain a Labor seat. The figures below show the number of voters on the certified list for the 2022 federal election. Labor's vote ranged from 40.7% at the Good News Lutheran School in Middle Park to 78.9% at St Mark's Catholic Primary School in Inala. Some candidates subsequently amended their registration forms to reflect new district numbers. Now it's our turn in Oxley. Strengthen Medicare by making it easier to see the doctor. Was i not clear on who was who ?. The following members have announced they are not contesting the upcoming election: Labor. Demographic Rating: Labor are slight favourites here but it will be very close. This LNP government are woeful to say the least. We acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of country throughout Australia and acknowledge their continuing connection to land, waters and community. The Regional population 2020 2021 Financial Year report, released this week, highlights Ripley, in Blairs south, growing by 19.4% an estimated 1,889 additional residents in a pandemic year. Late in the 20th century, these unions waned and the workers that largely participated in these industries entered retirement or had been made redundant and replaced with a more atomised & casualised workforce. 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